ASEANSC: Valuations Still Attractive vs. Past Easing Cycles, VN-Index Could Reach 1,800
ASEANSC Raises Earnings Growth Forecast for Listed Companies to 20%–25% in 2025, Driven by Banking and Real Estate Sectors Market-Wide Earnings Could Grow by More Than 20% in Q3 In its latest October strategy report, ASEAN Securities (ASEANSC) forecasts that the aggregate…
ASEANSC Raises Earnings Growth Forecast for Listed Companies to 20%–25% in 2025, Driven by Banking and Real Estate Sectors
Market-Wide Earnings Could Grow by More Than 20% in Q3
In its latest October strategy report, ASEAN Securities (ASEANSC) forecasts that the aggregate net profit of listed companies in the third quarter of 2025 will increase by more than 20% year-over-year.
Among all sectors, the securities industry is expected to record one of the highest earnings growth rates, with net profit projected to rise by 50%–60%.
This outlook is supported by favorable market conditions throughout Q3 2025. Strong price appreciation across large-cap and leading stocks has boosted proprietary trading performance, while market liquidity reached a new record high in August 2025, driving growth in brokerage and other securities-related services.
In addition, securities firms continue to benefit from the expansion of new business segments such as wealth management, alongside cost optimization achieved through digital transformation initiatives.
The banking sector is also projected to deliver strong results, with pre-tax profit growth estimated at 15%–20% in Q3 2025. Credit growth remains a key driver, reaching 13.37% year-to-date by the end of September 2025—the highest level recorded in many years.
For the full year 2025, ASEANSC Research forecasts system-wide credit growth of 18%–19%. Banking sector earnings are expected to be supported by:
- Expanding non-interest income streams, particularly from insurance and securities businesses;
- Improved asset quality thanks to the codification of Resolution 42 on bad debt resolution;
- Gradual improvement in the Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR) through ongoing digital transformation.
Meanwhile, the real estate sector is forecast to achieve net profit growth of 25%–30%, driven by robust project handovers and healthier balance sheets as developers have actively repurchased bonds over the past two years. The decline in lending rates has also contributed positively to the sector’s recovery.
ASEANSC believes the real estate market will continue improving through late 2025 and early 2026, supported by:
- Ongoing efforts to resolve legal bottlenecks in property projects;
- Apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City remaining near historical highs, supporting selling prices of ongoing developments;
- Positive spillover effects from landmark events such as the Thu Thiem land auctions and other market catalysts.
As a result, ASEANSC Research has upgraded its earnings growth forecast for listed companies to 20%–25% in 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance from the Banking and Real Estate sectors, which account for a significant share of overall market profits.
Valuations Remain Attractive Compared with Previous Liquidity Cycles
From a valuation perspective, the VN-Index is currently trading at a 2025 forward P/E of approximately 12.3x–12.8x.
According to ASEANSC analysts, although market valuations are trading above the five-year average, they remain significantly lower than levels seen during previous liquidity-driven market rallies, such as the 2021 cycle.
The current liquidity-supportive environment is being fostered through various policy measures, including:
- Accelerated public investment disbursement;
- Tax and fee reductions;
- A low-interest-rate environment;
- Continued expansion of credit growth.
These measures are expected to help the economy achieve a higher growth trajectory compared with previous periods.
Furthermore, ASEANSC noted that the Vietnamese stock market may experience an extended upward trend if it is upgraded from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market status under FTSE Russell’s classification framework.
ASEANSC Research estimates that Emerging Market ETFs could allocate more than USD 680 million to Vietnam in 2026, in addition to potential inflows from actively managed funds.
Positive Catalysts Expected in October
Looking ahead to October, the stock market may receive support from several key catalysts:
- Potential market upgrade developments;
- Strong Q3 2025 earnings growth across major sectors such as Banking, Securities, and Real Estate;
- Continued implementation of accommodative macroeconomic policies.
ASEANSC Research maintains a positive medium-term outlook for the Vietnamese stock market and expects the VN-Index to trade within a range of approximately 1,680 to 1,800 points during October.
Investment Strategy
ASEANSC recommends that investors currently holding stocks with attractive entry prices maintain their existing positions.
For investors seeking new opportunities, the firm advises gradual accumulation during market pullbacks and periods of volatility in order to optimize portfolio performance.
Particular attention should be given to stocks with compelling investment narratives for the remainder of the year, including:
- Companies expected to deliver strong 2025 earnings growth;
- Businesses benefiting from emerging economic trends;
- Potential beneficiaries of upcoming IPO waves.
Source: CafeF.vn
