ASEANSC Raises Earnings Growth Forecast for Listed Companies to 20%–25% in 2025, Led by Banking and Real Estate Sectors

MARKET-WIDE EARNINGS COULD GROW BY MORE THAN 20% IN Q3

In its recently released October strategy report, ASEAN Securities (ASEANSC) forecasts that the after-tax profits of listed companies across the market could increase by more than 20% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025.

Among sectors, securities firms are expected to record the strongest earnings growth, ranging from 50% to 60%.

According to ASEANSC, this outlook is supported by the strong performance of the stock market throughout Q3 2025. Rising prices among large-cap stocks, together with record-high market liquidity in August 2025, have boosted revenues from brokerage services, margin lending, and other securities-related activities.

In addition, securities companies have benefited from expanding into new business segments such as wealth management while optimizing costs through digital transformation initiatives.

For the banking sector, ASEANSC forecasts pre-tax profit growth of 15%–20% in Q3 2025. Credit expansion remains the key growth driver, reaching its highest level in many years. As of the end of September 2025, total outstanding credit in the banking system had increased by 13.37% compared to the beginning of the year.

For the full year 2025, ASEANSC Research projects credit growth of approximately 18%–19%. Banking sector earnings are expected to be supported by three key factors: (1) continued expansion of non-interest income, particularly from insurance and securities services; (2) improved asset quality thanks to bad debt resolution policies; and (3) a gradual decline in the cost-to-income ratio (CIR) driven by technology adoption and digital transformation.

Meanwhile, the real estate sector is projected to achieve after-tax profit growth of 25%–30%, supported by stronger project handovers, improved corporate financial conditions, and declining lending interest rates.

 

ASEANSC believes the outlook for the real estate sector in late 2025 and early 2026 will be supported by: (1) continued progress in resolving legal issues for development projects; (2) apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City remaining at elevated levels, supporting selling prices; and (3) positive spillover effects from land auctions, market transactions, and major real estate projects.

As a result, ASEANSC has raised its earnings growth forecast for listed companies to 20%–25% in 2025, as the Banking and Real Estate sectors the two most influential sectors in the market—are expected to deliver stronger-than-previously-anticipated business results.

 

VALUATIONS REMAIN ATTRACTIVE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS LIQUIDITY-DRIVEN CYCLES

Regarding valuations, the VN-Index is currently trading at a 2025 forward P/E ratio of approximately 12.3–12.8 times. According to ASEANSC, while this valuation is higher than the five-year average, it remains attractive when compared with previous monetary easing cycles, such as in 2021.

Current growth-supporting policies, including public investment programs, tax and fee reduction measures, a low-interest-rate environment, and strong credit expansion, are expected to create favorable conditions for economic acceleration in the coming years.

ASEANSC also believes that the Vietnamese stock market has further upside potential if it is upgraded from a Frontier Market to a Secondary Emerging Market under FTSE Russell’s classification framework.

ASEANSC Research estimates that emerging-market ETFs could allocate more than USD 680 million to Vietnam’s stock market in 2026, excluding inflows from actively managed funds.

Entering October, the stock market is expected to continue receiving support from three key factors: (1) prospects for a market upgrade; (2) strong Q3 2025 earnings results across sectors such as Banking, Securities, and Real Estate; and (3) the continuation of pro-growth policy measures.

ASEANSC maintains a positive medium-term outlook and forecasts that the VN-Index could fluctuate within the range of 1,680–1,800 points during October.

Regarding investment strategy, the brokerage recommends that investors holding stocks with favorable cost bases continue maintaining their positions. Meanwhile, investors seeking new opportunities should prioritize gradual accumulation during market pullbacks or periods of volatility to optimize portfolio performance.

The firm also advises investors to focus on stocks with unique growth stories, such as companies delivering strong earnings growth, benefiting from emerging economic trends, or planning IPOs in the near future.

Source: CafeF